Freight Market Update – December
Check out this month’s air cargo trends and insights presented by Judah Levine.
Webinar
In this year-end webinar, Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research, breaks down a volatile 2025 for global air cargo – from de minimis shocks to a surprisingly strong peak season – and looks ahead to what 2026 may bring. He’s joined by the Director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Research, Neil Mahoney, who unpacks how tariffs, inflation, and consumer behavior shaped the year in ways few expected.
From tariff swings to e-commerce resilience and capacity redeployments that kept the market steady, here’s what defined air cargo in December.
Highlights from This Month’s Update:
- E-Com Dips, Then Roars Back
De minimis changes triggered a sharp May drop in China→U.S. e-commerce, but volumes have since rebounded to around 90% of prior levels as platforms rewired fulfillment and capacity flows.
- Global Demand Defies Expectations
Despite fears of contraction, global air cargo volumes are up ~3% YTD, with Asia→Europe and intra-Asia lanes fueling growth while transpacific volumes stabilize.
- Rates Mark a Real Peak Season
China→U.S. rates surged past $7.50/kg, outpacing last year’s highs – driven by firm Q4 demand and rapid carrier capacity shifts.
- Southeast Asia Steps Up
Vietnam and broader Southeast Asia became major transpac drivers, with Vietnam→U.S. lift roughly doubling YoY as sourcing diversified.
- 2026 Outlook: Growth, Shuffle, Pressure
IATA projects 2.6% demand growth next year. AI-hardware shipments, shifting origins, and new de minimis rules will reshape flows – with potential upward rate pressure if demand outpaces capacity.
