Freight Market Update – February
Check out this month’s air cargo trends and insights presented by Judah Levine.
Webinar
In this month’s webinar, Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research, runs solo to break down what’s moving ocean and air markets as 2026 kicks off – from tariffs and trade lane reshuffles to rate swings, e-commerce headwinds, and a seasonal air cargo spike ahead of Valentine’s Day.
From a muted Lunar New Year to a Red Sea return that’s closer (but still messy), here’s what’s shaping global freight in February.
Highlights from This Month’s Update:
- Seasonality Returns – With an Asterisk
A firmer tariff landscape is bringing more “normal” transpacific timing back… unless fresh shocks hit.
- Tariff Wildcards Still Loom
Greenland tension, “pre-authorized” tariff threats, and the pending Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs keep uncertainty (and front-loading risk) alive.
- U.S. Ocean Demand Stays Soft
NRF projections point to a weaker Q1 vs last year’s front-loaded months, while forecasts still call for another year of contraction in 2026.
- Global Trade Keeps Growing – Just Not Through the U.S.
Outside North America, container volumes stayed strong in 2025 as trade reroutes and countries deepen non-U.S. ties.
- Red Sea Return: Congestion First, Capacity Flood Later
Carriers are taking real steps back toward Suez – but any broader return risks short-term European port congestion, followed by more capacity in an already oversupplied market.
- Air Cargo: Growth Holds, E-Com Slows, Flowers Fly
2025 air cargo beat “down year” expectations, but lane growth is uneven and e-commerce tailwinds are cooling as de minimis rules tighten – while Valentine’s flower season is already lifting rates from South America.
