Freight Market Update – January
Check out this month’s air cargo trends and insights presented by Judah Levine.
Webinar
In this month’s webinar, Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research, is joined by Oliver Esch, VP Commercial for Enterprise Shippers, to connect the dots between early-2026 freight market signals and what shippers can actually do about them.
From a (mostly) calmer tariff backdrop to air cargo lanes quietly rebounding – and procurement playbooks that finally admit volatility isn’t “temporary” – here’s what’s shaping global freight in January.
Highlights from This Month’s Update:
- Air Cargo Demand Stays Surprisingly Strong
Global air volumes keep climbing, with November setting a record. December is tracking even stronger – despite earlier forecasts calling for trade-war-driven softness.
- Transpacific Air Is Back in Growth Mode
After six straight months of YoY declines post–de minimis changes, Asia→North America returned to growth in November – helped by e-commerce adjusting and a broader rebound in general cargo.
- Capacity Followed the Money (Fast)
Transpacific capacity dipped when de minimis tightened – then steadily rebuilt back to April levels as carriers chased demand shifts, including more lift out of Southeast Asia (especially Vietnam).
- Rates Stayed Elevated – Even When Volumes Didn’t
China→U.S. air rates held steady through the de minimis shock, spiked in peak season, and have now eased below ~$6/kg – still high by historical standards. Translation: pricing is being shaped as much by capacity placement as by demand.
- Procurement Strategy: From Annual Ritual to Always-On
Oliver’s takeaway: the old “collect data → run annual tender → hope it holds” model is dead. Shippers are shifting toward lane-by-lane strategies, more spot coverage where it makes sense, quarterly reopens, and index-linked pricing to reduce contract breakdowns when spot swings.
