Freight Market Update – November

In this month’s webinar, Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research, is joined by Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport & Ports at the World Bank, to connect the dots between trade policy, port performance, and real-world freight and air cargo trends.

From a surprise U.S.–China tariff truce to shifting e-commerce flows and port benchmarks that actually move rates, here’s what’s shaping global freight in November.

Highlights from This Month’s Update:

• Tariff Truce (Mostly) Holds
  The U.S. and China agreed a one-year de-escalation. Effective tariffs ease from ~57% to ~47%–still high, but finally predictable.

• But the Legal Wildcard Is Looming
  The Supreme Court may strike down IEEPA-based tariffs, potentially creating a brief “low-tariff window.”

• Red Sea: Calm Talks, Capacity Shock Later
  A ceasefire and Houthi statements about ending Red Sea attacks raise the odds of a Suez return. When carriers do commit back, expect a short burst of vessel bunching and congestion – followed by a meaningful release of capacity into the market.

• Air Cargo: Down One Lane, Up on Others
  After de minimis changes, China→U.S. e-commerce volumes plunged in May – but were offset by big gains from other Asian origins to the U.S. and strong growth China→Europe.

• E-Com Keeps Flying
  China→U.S. B2C by air didn’t disappear; platforms re-routed. China→Europe e-commerce volumes were ~60% higher May–August vs last year, and carriers are redeploying capacity in days to chase those flows.

• Rates Signal a Real Peak Season
  China→U.S. rates climbed from the mid-$5s/kg to around $6.30/kg, suggesting genuine peak-season demand, not just noise around tariff headlines.

• Operational Noise, Limited Impact
  The 40+ day U.S. government shutdown and MD-11F groundings grabbed headlines but had limited effect on international air cargo. Belly capacity and a handful of freighters were disrupted; UPS and FedEx backfilled with spare lift.