For airlines today, volatility has become a default setting.
Trade routes keep shifting. Rates won’t stabilize. Passenger and cargo demand zigzag between lanes. Ecommerce booms, then pivots. Tariffs change on a daily basis.
In short – it’s getting harder to fly a predictable P&L.
That was a recurring theme at WCS this April – and one I explored in even greater depth during a recent webinar on Contending with Trade Volatility.
Here’s what was discussed – and why it matters as airlines plan their next moves.
But first, the context.
The Market Moves Faster Than Your Spreadsheets
During the session, Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research, shared some eye-opening data points – insights that were already resonating at WCS, and have only sharpened since:
- Global air cargo volumes: up 11% year-on-year, largely driven by China’s B2C ecommerce surge, at least before May.
- US De Minimis pause (May 2, 2025): means that small B2C packages now require full customs clearance and 30% tariffs, slashing ecommerce air volumes into the US and forcing a rapid modal shift to ocean.
- Freighter volumes rebalancing: Transpacific freighter volumes dropped; some planes now being deployed elsewhere. Transatlantic rates doubled in Q4 and are now declining as capacity swings back.
- $5/kg: still the “new normal” floor for Asia to US spot rates, according to the Freightos Air Index (FAX) – far above long-term averages.
As Judah puts it:
There’s a lot of volatility, a lot of different factors causing excitement – and challenges – in the air cargo market.
Bottom line: anyone still managing pricing or networks based on last quarter’s data is flying blind.
AI in Air Cargo: Why This Time It’s Different
AI’s role in helping airlines compete was one of the most talked-about topics at WCS – and it became a central focus in our webinar as well.
In general AI isn’t advancing at a steady crawl.
Large Language Model (LLM) AIs like ChatGPT have gone from pre-school capabilities to college level intelligence more than twice as fast as a human does. If this pace continues, AI capable of handling any human job, or AGI could be with us before the end of the decade.
But for air cargo, what matters isn’t just applying generic language AIs – it’s applying targeted, data-rich AI in ways that create tangible business impact. Let’s take a look at progressively sophisticated models:
- General LLM AI can increasingly handle document automation and customer support.
- Specialized AI tackles operational optimization – think interlining, loading, and exception handling.
- But the real game-changer is when AI meets unique industry and carrier-specific data – enabling sophisticated dynamic pricing, demand forecasting, and intelligent network design.
That’s where WebCargo by Freightos is focused. Because this isn’t about generic tools – it’s about AI built for this industry, trained on the data that matters. Jan Krems, President of United Cargo sums it up,ut AI built for this industry, trained on the data that matters. Jan Krems, President at United Cargo sums it up,
Today’s air cargo customers want a quick and fully-digitized sales experience with extensive, agile self-service options. WebCargo by Freightos is a recognized leader in providing the level of digital connectivity we want to deliver.
Airline? Predict demand. Control the curve. Optimize for profit, revenue, or market share with SkyRate.
Why Airline Pricing Is Still (Sometimes) Stuck in the Stone Age
Here’s an example shared at IATA’s WCS that resonated with many of our airline partners:
When running a Heathrow → JFK search on WebCargo, prices ranged from £1.20/kg to £5.40/kg – a 4.5x spread for the same route. And even though we query airlines dynamically, many are still serving up rates from static spreadsheets behind the scenes.
Airlines don’t need to replace their pricing teams – what they need are smarter tools that help them price with precision.
That’s why we built SkyRate – an AI model trained on millions of bookings, with about 90% accuracy in predicting forwarder behavior at different price points.
With SkyRate, pricing teams can view a live demand curve and choose whether to optimize for revenue, profit, or market share – with full visibility into competitive dynamics.
Instead of automating pricing decisions, we’ve modeled how customers will respond – giving airlines the control to price smarter.
To be clear, this isn’t the full extent of artificial intelligence in air cargo. It’s just one (powerful) example of how combining AI with internal and market data can drive profound model shifts in pricing.
Final Thought: AI + Unique Data = The Only Winning Formula
The one point that came through clearly during both WCS and this webinar is this: AI alone isn’t enough.
To truly drive results, airlines need to pair AI with proprietary, real-time market data. That’s what lets you:
- Optimize pricing in volatile markets
- React to shifting trade patterns
- Model true demand and competition
- Enable human decision-makers to move faster and smarter
Every airline should absolutely be adopting AI internally. But no single carrier has the global visibility to model market dynamics accurately – that’s where shared platforms like Freightos provide a distinct advantage.
And the numbers show the momentum:
- 370K+ digital air bookings last quarter
- Over 70 carriers live on WebCargo
- ~20,000 unique buyers transacting
Volatility isn’t going away. But with AI + unique data, airlines can turn it from risk to opportunity – and future-proof their networks.
